{"items":[{"id":8587,"event_id":3798,"slug":"3798-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 6:58 PM and 7:58 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:58:26.718516Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:58:00Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:58:25.972319Z","time":"7:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMTo1ODoyNi43MTg1MTYrMDA6MDB8ODU4Nw","measurement":{"window":"6:58 PM–7:58 PM CST","n":16,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8587,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8492,"event_id":3743,"slug":"3743-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 66% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:46.000361Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0Ni4wMDAzNjErMDA6MDB8ODQ5Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8492,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8491,"event_id":3742,"slug":"3742-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 59% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:45.994500Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0NS45OTQ1MDArMDA6MDB8ODQ5MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8491,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8410,"event_id":3698,"slug":"3698-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for St Louis departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.686829Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS42ODY4MjkrMDA6MDB8ODQxMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"STL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8410,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8021,"event_id":3516,"slug":"3516-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:46:31.250758Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:46 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:46 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:46:00Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:46 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:46:30.124948Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:46 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMzo0NjozMS4yNTA3NTgrMDA6MDB8ODAyMQ","measurement":{"window":"8:46 PM–9:46 PM CST","n":21,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"43%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":11.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8021,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8004,"event_id":3449,"slug":"3449-stl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis departure delays ease: 35% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 7:34 PM and 8:34 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 62% → 35%","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:34:21.620089Z","time":"8:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:34:00Z","time":"8:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:34 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:34:20.449815Z","time":"8:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjozNDoyMS42MjAwODkrMDA6MDB8ODAwNA","measurement":{"window":"7:34 PM–8:34 PM CST","n":17,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"35%","baseline_pct":"39%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":7.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8004,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8001,"event_id":3478,"slug":"3478-stl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 67%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"53% → 67% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:26:00.716027Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:25:59.042583Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjoyNjowMC43MTYwMjcrMDA6MDB8ODAwMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8001,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7924,"event_id":3477,"slug":"3477-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:06.961713Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:02.998232Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDoyODowNi45NjE3MTMrMDA6MDB8NzkyNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7924,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7817,"event_id":3417,"slug":"3417-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:42:06.042859Z","time":"10:42 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:42 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:42 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:42:00Z","time":"10:42 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:42 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:42 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:42:04.962261Z","time":"10:42 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:42 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:42 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNDo0MjowNi4wNDI4NTkrMDA6MDB8NzgxNw","measurement":{"window":"9:42 PM–10:42 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"43%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7817,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7788,"event_id":3373,"slug":"3373-stl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis departure delays worsen: 85% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 67% → 85%","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:21:49.625664Z","time":"9:21 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:21 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:21 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:21:00Z","time":"9:21 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:21 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:21 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:21:48.793622Z","time":"9:21 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:21 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:21 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMzoyMTo0OS42MjU2NjQrMDA6MDB8Nzc4OA","measurement":{"window":"8:21 PM–9:21 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"85%","baseline_pct":"39%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":38.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7788,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7775,"event_id":3391,"slug":"3391-stl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 78%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 78% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T02:26:00.798413Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T02:25:59.160141Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 02:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMjoyNjowMC43OTg0MTMrMDA6MDB8Nzc3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"78%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7775,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7467,"event_id":3213,"slug":"3213-stl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:55 PM and 11:55 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 67% → 42%","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:55:03.604572Z","time":"11:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:55:00Z","time":"11:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:55 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:55:03.308185Z","time":"11:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNTo1NTowMy42MDQ1NzIrMDA6MDB8NzQ2Nw","measurement":{"window":"10:55 PM–11:55 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"42%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-8.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7467,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7383,"event_id":3159,"slug":"3159-stl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 83%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"79% → 83% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T02:26:54.121323Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T02:26:53.008707Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 02:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMjoyNjo1NC4xMjEzMjMrMDA6MDB8NzM4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"83%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7383,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7306,"event_id":3039,"slug":"3039-stl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 75%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"72% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:57:35.938119Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:57:34.900734Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMzo1NzozNS45MzgxMTkrMDA6MDB8NzMwNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"75%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7306,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7156,"event_id":3152,"slug":"3152-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 1:30 PM and 2:30 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:30:40.711394Z","time":"2:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:30:00Z","time":"2:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:30:39.987783Z","time":"2:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMDozMDo0MC43MTEzOTQrMDA6MDB8NzE1Ng","measurement":{"window":"1:30 PM–2:30 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"29%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":31.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7156,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7145,"event_id":3032,"slug":"3032-stl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 57% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:26:35.853286Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:26:32.829176Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMDoyNjozNS44NTMyODYrMDA6MDB8NzE0NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"STL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":54,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7145,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6927,"event_id":3038,"slug":"3038-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for St Louis departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:27:43.342223Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:27:42.491374Z","time":"8:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNDoyNzo0My4zNDIyMjMrMDA6MDB8NjkyNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"STL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":49,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6927,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6742,"event_id":2953,"slug":"2953-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:51 PM and 8:51 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T02:51:32.454437Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:51 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 02:51 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T02:51:00Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:51 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 02:51 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T02:51:31.913395Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:51 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 02:51 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwMjo1MTozMi40NTQ0MzcrMDA6MDB8Njc0Mg","measurement":{"window":"7:51 PM–8:51 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":10.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6742,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6689,"event_id":2928,"slug":"2928-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 64% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T22:55:45.521810Z","time":"4:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 4:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 22:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T22:55:43.890889Z","time":"4:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 4:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQyMjo1NTo0NS41MjE4MTArMDA6MDB8NjY4OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6689,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6630,"event_id":2886,"slug":"2886-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T17:45:57.069789Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 17:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T17:45:00Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 17:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T17:45:55.900369Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 17:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxNzo0NTo1Ny4wNjk3ODkrMDA6MDB8NjYzMA","measurement":{"window":"10:45 AM–11:45 AM CST","n":12,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":22.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6630,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6600,"event_id":2868,"slug":"2868-stl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 28%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Thursday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 28%; calm-weather level 26%","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T13:25:57.486144Z","time":"7:25 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:25 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 13:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T13:25:55.871472Z","time":"7:25 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:25 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 13:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxMzoyNTo1Ny40ODYxNDQrMDA6MDB8NjYwMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"28%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"STL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":49,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6600,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6319,"event_id":2769,"slug":"2769-stl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:17 PM and 8:17 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T02:17:35.419237Z","time":"8:17 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 8:17 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 02:17 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T02:17:00Z","time":"8:17 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 8:17 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 02:17 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T02:17:26.945228Z","time":"8:17 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 8:17 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 02:17 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQwMjoxNzozNS40MTkyMzcrMDA6MDB8NjMxOQ","measurement":{"window":"7:17 PM–8:17 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"54%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":21.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6319,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6203,"event_id":2528,"slug":"2528-stl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model now puts St Louis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 38%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 45%; calm-weather level 38%","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:28:33.005416Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T20:28:26.545971Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 20:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QyMDoyODozMy4wMDU0MTYrMDA6MDB8NjIwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"STL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":44,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6203,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6157,"event_id":2568,"slug":"2568-stl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 47%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 47%; calm-weather level 39%","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:58:48.115357Z","time":"12:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:58:36.476385Z","time":"12:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QxODo1ODo0OC4xMTUzNTcrMDA6MDB8NjE1Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":61,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-03T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 3","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 3, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6157,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5905,"event_id":2581,"slug":"2581-stl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"St Louis departure delays worsen: 87% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 10:02 PM and 11:02 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 46% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 80% → 87%","airports":["STL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T05:02:36.997548Z","time":"11:02 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:02 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 05:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T05:02:00Z","time":"11:02 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:02 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 05:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T05:02:35.500956Z","time":"11:02 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"10 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:02 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 05:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwNTowMjozNi45OTc1NDgrMDA6MDB8NTkwNQ","measurement":{"window":"10:02 PM–11:02 PM CST","n":15,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"87%","baseline_pct":"46%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":28.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":5905,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwNTowMjozNi45OTc1NDgrMDA6MDB8NTkwNQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMTo1ODoyNi43MTg1MTYrMDA6MDB8ODU4Nw","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

St Louis arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 16 arrivals that landed between 6:58 PM and 7:58 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:58 PM–7:58 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 66%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 66% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 66%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 59%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 59% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 59%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for St Louis departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

St Louis arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 21 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:46 PM–9:46 PM CSTSample 21 flightsLate 43%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

St Louis departure delays ease: 35% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 62% → 35%

\n \n

Of 17 departures that took off between 7:34 PM and 8:34 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:34 PM–8:34 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 35%Typical 39%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 67%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 67%

\n

What changed: 53% → 67% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 67%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

St Louis arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:42 PM–10:42 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

St Louis departure delays worsen: 85% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 67% → 85%

\n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:21 PM–9:21 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 39%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 78%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 78%

\n

What changed: 69% → 78% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 78%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n STL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

St Louis arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 67% → 42%

\n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:55 PM and 11:55 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:55 PM–11:55 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 83%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 83%

\n

What changed: 79% → 83% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 83%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 75%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 75%

\n

What changed: 72% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 75%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

St Louis departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 1:30 PM and 2:30 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 1:30 PM–2:30 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 29%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 57%

\n

What changed: 47% → 57% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for St Louis departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

St Louis arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:51 PM and 8:51 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:51 PM–8:51 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 64% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

St Louis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:45 AM–11:45 AM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 28%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 28%, near normal

\n

What changed: 40% → 28%; calm-weather level 26%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Thursday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 28%Horizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n STL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

St Louis arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:17 PM and 8:17 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:17 PM–8:17 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model now puts St Louis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 38%

\n

What changed: 41% → 45%; calm-weather level 38%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 3\n 9 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 47%, near normal

\n

What changed: 50% → 47%; calm-weather level 39%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 2\n 10 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n STL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

St Louis departure delays worsen: 87% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 80% → 87%

\n \n

Of 15 departures that took off between 10:02 PM and 11:02 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 46% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:02 PM–11:02 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 87%Typical 46%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View STL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=STL"}