{"items":[{"id":8823,"event_id":3890,"slug":"3890-tpa-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.123476Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4xMjM0NzYrMDA6MDB8ODgyMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"TPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":52,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8823,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8746,"event_id":3847,"slug":"3847-tpa-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Tampa arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 12:19 AM and 1:19 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 47% → 67%","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:19:30.950154Z","time":"1:19 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:19 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:19 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:19:00Z","time":"1:19 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:19 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:19 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:19:30.625756Z","time":"1:19 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:19 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:19 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNjoxOTozMC45NTAxNTQrMDA6MDB8ODc0Ng","measurement":{"window":"12:19 AM–1:19 AM EST","n":12,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"67%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":61.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8746,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8719,"event_id":3847,"slug":"3847-tpa-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Tampa arrivals running late: 47% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 11:06 PM and 12:06 AM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.916888Z","time":"12:06 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:00Z","time":"12:06 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:06:09.289194Z","time":"12:06 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:06 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTowNjowOS45MTY4ODgrMDA6MDB8ODcxOQ","measurement":{"window":"11:06 PM–12:06 AM EST","n":15,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"47%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":13.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8746,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8746,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Tampa arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T06:19:30.950154Z","time":"1:19 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:19 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 06:19 UTC"}}},{"id":8573,"event_id":3793,"slug":"3793-tpa-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Tampa: 11 of 16 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 19 departures scheduled from Tampa (TPA) between 8:27 PM and 9:57 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 16. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into TPA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:38.613965Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:00Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozOC42MTM5NjUrMDA6MDB8ODU3Mw","measure":{"chips":[["Next","8:27 PM–9:57 PM EST"],["Tight turns","11 of 16"],["Share","69%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","8:27 PM–9:57 PM EST · 19 departures, aircraft known for 16"],["Tight turns","11 (69%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 9 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 4453 to HOU at 8:37 PM: aircraft N8989L, inbound WN 4581 from BDL (airborne), -32 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4241 to DAL at 9:07 PM: aircraft N9022W, inbound WN 3760 from SAN (airborne), -25 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3338 to CMH at 9:47 PM: aircraft N9026R, inbound WN 4777 from DAL (airborne), 2 min to turn"],["Tightest","DL 1275 to RDU at 8:59 PM: aircraft N342NB, inbound DL 1275 from RDU (airborne), 9 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 62 to PIT at 8:36 PM: aircraft N9020R, inbound WN 3590 from PVD (landed), 15 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8573,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8568,"event_id":3696,"slug":"3696-tpa-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 65%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 65% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.767115Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43NjcxMTUrMDA6MDB8ODU2OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"65%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"TPA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":17,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8568,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8546,"event_id":3775,"slug":"3775-tpa-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Tampa departures running late: 69% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 7:15 PM and 8:15 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:15:21.533546Z","time":"8:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:15:00Z","time":"8:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:15:20.928475Z","time":"8:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToxNToyMS41MzM1NDYrMDA6MDB8ODU0Ng","measurement":{"window":"7:15 PM–8:15 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"69%","baseline_pct":"36%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":25.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8546,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8489,"event_id":3669,"slug":"3669-tpa-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 58%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 58% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:45.959265Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0NS45NTkyNjUrMDA6MDB8ODQ4OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"58%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"TPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8489,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8474,"event_id":3641,"slug":"3641-tpa-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Tampa departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 4:12 PM and 5:12 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 23% now","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:12:37.360488Z","time":"5:12 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:12 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:12 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:12:00Z","time":"5:12 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:12 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:12 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:12:36.794243Z","time":"5:12 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:12 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:12 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjoxMjozNy4zNjA0ODgrMDA6MDB8ODQ3NA","measurement":{"window":"4:12 PM–5:12 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"23%","baseline_pct":"30%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":9.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8474,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8408,"event_id":3696,"slug":"3696-tpa-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.578535Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS41Nzg1MzUrMDA6MDB8ODQwOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"TPA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":16,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8568,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8568,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 65%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.767115Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"}}},{"id":8365,"event_id":3669,"slug":"3669-tpa-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Tampa departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Tampa arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 47% → 67%

\n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 12:19 AM and 1:19 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:19 AM–1:19 AM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 67%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Tampa arrivals running late: 47% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 15 arrivals that landed between 11:06 PM and 12:06 AM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:06 PM–12:06 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 47%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa: 11 of 16 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n \n \n

Of the 19 departures scheduled from Tampa (TPA) between 8:27 PM and 9:57 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 16. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into TPA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

\n \n

Next 8:27 PM–9:57 PM ESTTight turns 11 of 16Share 69%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 65%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 65%

\n

What changed: 45% → 65% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 65%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departures running late: 69% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 7:15 PM and 8:15 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:15 PM–8:15 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 69%Typical 36%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 58%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 58%

\n

What changed: 44% → 58% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 58%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% at worst → 23% now

\n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 4:12 PM and 5:12 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 4:12 PM–5:12 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 23%Typical 30%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Tampa departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departures running late: 46% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 9:28 AM and 10:28 AM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 13% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:28 AM–10:28 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 13%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 10\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Tampa arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:33 PM–12:33 AM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 54% at worst → 12% now

\n \n

Of 16 departures that took off between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 12:02 PM–1:02 PM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 12%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departures running late: 40% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 15 departures that took off between 9:01 AM and 10:01 AM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 13% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:01 AM–10:01 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 40%Typical 13%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Tampa arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:27 PM and 12:27 AM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:27 PM–12:27 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Tampa arrival delays worsen: 62% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 54% → 62%

\n \n

Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:30 PM and 12:30 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:30 PM–12:30 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 62%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Tampa arrival delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 62% → 54%

\n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:35 PM and 8:35 PM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:35 PM–8:35 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departure delays ease: 67% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 85% → 67%

\n \n

Of 21 departures that took off between 6:48 PM and 7:48 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:48 PM–7:48 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 67%Typical 36%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Tampa arrival delays worsen: 62% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% → 62%

\n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 6:01 PM and 7:01 PM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:01 PM–7:01 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 62%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departure delays worsen: 85% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 58% → 85%

\n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 5:59 PM and 6:59 PM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 5:59 PM–6:59 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 37%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 67%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 67%

\n

What changed: 58% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 67%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Tampa arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 16 arrivals that landed between 3:23 PM and 4:23 PM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 3:23 PM–4:23 PM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=TPA&mode=all"}