{"items":[{"id":13047,"event_id":5298,"slug":"5298-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among Tampa departures 6–9 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T19:26:08.681461Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 19:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T19:26:07.589740Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 19:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxOToyNjowOC42ODE0NjErMDA6MDB8MTMwNDc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.2,"target":"TPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":53,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":13047,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":13046,"event_id":5297,"slug":"5297-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among Tampa departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 51 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T19:26:08.677812Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 19:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T19:26:07.589740Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 19:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxOToyNjowOC42Nzc4MTIrMDA6MDB8MTMwNDY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.4,"target":"TPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":51,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":13046,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12711,"event_id":4992,"slug":"4992-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 50 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 4 → 3","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:57:37.782329Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:57:36.692305Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNTo1NzozNy43ODIzMjkrMDA6MDB8MTI3MTE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.8,"target":"TPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":50,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":12711,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12710,"event_id":4991,"slug":"4991-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 43 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 2","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:57:37.780205Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:57:36.692305Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNTo1NzozNy43ODAyMDUrMDA6MDB8MTI3MTA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.3,"target":"TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":43,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":12710,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12410,"event_id":4874,"slug":"4874-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 4 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.406048Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:37.113811Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC40MDYwNDgrMDA6MDB8MTI0MTA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.4,"target":"TPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":42,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12410,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12161,"event_id":4798,"slug":"4798-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 30 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.622157Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC42MjIxNTcrMDA6MDB8MTIxNjE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.0,"target":"TPA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12161,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11159,"event_id":4483,"slug":"4483-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Tampa departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 27 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 4 → 5 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:19.130689Z","time":"3:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:12.179045Z","time":"3:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDoyNjoxOS4xMzA2ODkrMDA6MDB8MTExNTk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.2,"target":"TPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":11159,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11041,"event_id":4445,"slug":"4445-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Tampa departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 50 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:52.283781Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1Mi4yODM3ODErMDA6MDB8MTEwNDE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.1,"target":"TPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":50,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11041,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10698,"event_id":4444,"slug":"4444-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Tampa departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 47 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 17 → 7 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:36.495748Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi40OTU3NDgrMDA6MDB8MTA2OTg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.6,"target":"TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":47,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10698,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10395,"event_id":4443,"slug":"4443-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 38 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 16 → 15 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.177836Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4xNzc4MzYrMDA6MDB8MTAzOTU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.8,"target":"TPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":38,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10395,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9976,"event_id":4374,"slug":"4374-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 47 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 3","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.810503Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC44MTA1MDMrMDA6MDB8OTk3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":47,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9976,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9975,"event_id":4352,"slug":"4352-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 38 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 2","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.808941Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC44MDg5NDErMDA6MDB8OTk3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.4,"target":"TPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":38,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9975,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9974,"event_id":4220,"slug":"4220-tpa-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.806023Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:57:50.231271Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODo1Nzo1MC44MDYwMjMrMDA6MDB8OTk3NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.6,"target":"TPA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9974,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxOToyNjowOC42ODE0NjErMDA6MDB8MTMwNDc","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 56 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 5 cancellations among Tampa departures 6–9 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 56 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 5 cancellations among Tampa departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 51 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 4 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 50 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 5 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 43 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 4 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 30 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 23 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Tampa departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 4 → 5 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 27 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Tampa departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 50 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 28 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Tampa departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 17 → 7 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 47 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 30 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 16 → 15 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 38 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 35 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 6 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 47 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 35 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 5 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 38 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 35 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=TPA"}