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Tampa typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). 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Tampa typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 47% at worst → 13% now","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:21.624101Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:21.119584Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODowMDoyMS42MjQxMDErMDA6MDB8OTA1Mw","measurement":{"window":"12:00 PM–1:00 PM EST","n":15,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"13%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9053,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8823,"event_id":3890,"slug":"3890-tpa-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 65%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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Tampa typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 58%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 58% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:45.959265Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0NS45NTkyNjUrMDA6MDB8ODQ4OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"58%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"TPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8489,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8474,"event_id":3641,"slug":"3641-tpa-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Tampa departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 4:12 PM and 5:12 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 23% now","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:12:37.360488Z","time":"5:12 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:12 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:12 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:12:00Z","time":"5:12 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:12 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:12 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:12:36.794243Z","time":"5:12 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:12 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:12 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjoxMjozNy4zNjA0ODgrMDA6MDB8ODQ3NA","measurement":{"window":"4:12 PM–5:12 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"23%","baseline_pct":"30%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":9.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8474,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8364,"event_id":3668,"slug":"3668-tpa-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:45.573231Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:44.534616Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1NTo0NS41NzMyMzErMDA6MDB8ODM2NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"TPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8364,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8043,"event_id":3524,"slug":"3524-tpa-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Tampa arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:33:45.990195Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:33 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:33:00Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:33 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:33:44.704869Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:33 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNTozMzo0NS45OTAxOTUrMDA6MDB8ODA0Mw","measurement":{"window":"11:33 PM–12:33 AM EST","n":12,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":19.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8043,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7991,"event_id":3505,"slug":"3505-tpa-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 PM–midnight Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:27:30.687913Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:27:29.177630Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMToyNzozMC42ODc5MTMrMDA6MDB8Nzk5MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"TPA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":17,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7991,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7887,"event_id":3437,"slug":"3437-tpa-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Tampa departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 54% at worst → 12% now","airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T18:02:37.854603Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 18:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T18:02:00Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 18:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T18:02:36.489002Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 18:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxODowMjozNy44NTQ2MDMrMDA6MDB8Nzg4Nw","measurement":{"window":"12:02 PM–1:02 PM EST","n":16,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"12%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7887,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxODowMjozNy44NTQ2MDMrMDA6MDB8Nzg4Nw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC42MTgyMDYrMDA6MDB8MTIxNjA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 51%

\n

What changed: 57% → 51% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Sunday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 49%

\n

What changed: 56% → 49% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 52%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Sunday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 52%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Tampa arrival delays worsen: 77% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 56% → 77%

\n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:45 PM and 10:45 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:45 PM–10:45 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 77%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 70%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 70%

\n

What changed: 60% → 70% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 70%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departure delays worsen: 79% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 54% → 79%

\n \n

Of 14 departures that took off between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 1:59 PM–2:59 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 79%Typical 28%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 71%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 71%

\n

What changed: 56% → 71% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 71%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 21 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 59%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 59%

\n

What changed: 50% → 59% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 59%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 22 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 27 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 32%, near normal

\n

What changed: 42% → 32%; calm-weather level 17%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Saturday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 32%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 30 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 26%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 26%, near normal

\n

What changed: 40% → 26%; calm-weather level 11%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 26%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 32 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 departures that took off between 9:41 PM and 10:41 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:41 PM–10:41 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 100%Typical 40%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 34 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 78%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 78% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 78%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 38 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 87%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 87%

\n

What changed: 45% → 87% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 87%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 42 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departures back near normal: 13% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 47% at worst → 13% now

\n \n

Of 15 departures that took off between 12:00 PM and 1:00 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 12:00 PM–1:00 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 13%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Tampa arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 47% → 67%

\n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 12:19 AM and 1:19 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:19 AM–1:19 AM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 67%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 65%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 65%

\n

What changed: 45% → 65% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 65%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departures running late: 69% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 7:15 PM and 8:15 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:15 PM–8:15 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 69%Typical 36%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 58%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 58%

\n

What changed: 44% → 58% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 58%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% at worst → 23% now

\n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 4:12 PM and 5:12 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 4:12 PM–5:12 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 23%Typical 30%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 10\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Tampa arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:33 PM–12:33 AM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n TPA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Tampa departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 54% at worst → 12% now

\n \n

Of 16 departures that took off between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 12:02 PM–1:02 PM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 12%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View TPA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=TPA"}