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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.316725Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMTY3MjUrMDA6MDB8Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":71,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":3,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2,"event_id":2,"slug":"2-jfk-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.313854Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMTM4NTQrMDA6MDB8Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":109,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":1,"event_id":1,"slug":"1-lga-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA reports ground delay program for LaGuardia arrivals, average delay 31 min","body":"The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to LaGuardia (LGA), citing “thunderstorms”; it gives an average delay of 31 min and a maximum of 88 min. Departures to LGA are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.063360Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T17:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 1:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4wNjMzNjArMDA6MDB8MQ","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":1,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMjo0MTo0My4wNTg1MjIrMDA6MDB8MjI","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 13 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA now reports departure delays of 31–45 min at Newark

\n

What changed: range 16–30 → 31–45 min

\n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 31–45 min at Newark (EWR), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
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\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 17 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA now reports departure delays of 46–60 min at LaGuardia

\n

What changed: range 31–45 → 46–60 min

\n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 46–60 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 17 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports departure delays of 16–30 min at Newark

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 16–30 min at Newark (EWR), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 21 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Ground stop\n LGA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports ground stop for flights to LaGuardia until 7:15 PM EDT

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for LaGuardia (LGA), citing “thunderstorms”. Flights to LGA are held at their departure airports until 7:15 PM EDT. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 27 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 73%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 73%

\n

What changed: 62% → 73% since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 73%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 41 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Ground stop\n EWR\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports ground stop for flights to Newark until 7:15 PM EDT

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for Newark (EWR), citing “thunderstorms”. Flights to EWR are held at their departure airports until 7:15 PM EDT. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 62%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 62%

\n

What changed: 54% → 62% since the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 62%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Newark

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:11 PM EDT, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:09 PM EDT.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports departure delays of 16–30 min at Newark

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 16–30 min at Newark (EWR), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA now reports departure delays of 31–45 min at LaGuardia

\n

What changed: range 16–30 → 31–45 min

\n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 31–45 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 54%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 54%

\n

What changed: 59% → 54% since the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 54%Horizon 4.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Update\n Traffic restriction\n JFK\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA updates JFK ground delay program

\n

What changed: reason now “thunderstorms”

\n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to JFK (JFK), citing “thunderstorms”; it gives an average delay of 60 min and a maximum of 133 min. Departures to JFK are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n JFK\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports ground delay program for JFK arrivals, average delay 60 min

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to JFK (JFK), citing “THUNDERSTORMS”; it gives an average delay of 60 min and a maximum of 133 min. Departures to JFK are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports departure delays of 16–30 min at LaGuardia

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 16–30 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n EWR\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports ground delay program for Newark arrivals, average delay 72 min

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to Newark (EWR), citing “other”; it gives an average delay of 72 min and a maximum of 137 min. Departures to EWR are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 54%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 54%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 59%\n Major\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 59% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 59%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 64% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n LGA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports ground delay program for LaGuardia arrivals, average delay 31 min

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to LaGuardia (LGA), citing “thunderstorms”; it gives an average delay of 31 min and a maximum of 88 min. Departures to LGA are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
"],"filters":"mode=all"}