{"items":[{"id":8823,"event_id":3890,"slug":"3890-tpa-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.123476Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4xMjM0NzYrMDA6MDB8ODgyMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"TPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":52,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8823,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8822,"event_id":3889,"slug":"3889-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.097701Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wOTc3MDErMDA6MDB8ODgyMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":55,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8822,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8821,"event_id":3888,"slug":"3888-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.054051Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wNTQwNTErMDA6MDB8ODgyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":1.6,"target":"FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8821,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8820,"event_id":3887,"slug":"3887-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.007612Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wMDc2MTIrMDA6MDB8ODgyMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":73,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8820,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8819,"event_id":3886,"slug":"3886-slc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SLC"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.965066Z","time":"2:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"2:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My45NjUwNjYrMDA6MDB8ODgxOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8819,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8818,"event_id":3786,"slug":"3786-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 12 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.889314Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My44ODkzMTQrMDA6MDB8ODgxOA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.6,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":8818,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8817,"event_id":3885,"slug":"3885-lga-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among LaGuardia departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 106 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.865630Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My44NjU2MzArMDA6MDB8ODgxNw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.4,"target":"LGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":106,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8817,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8816,"event_id":3784,"slug":"3784-lga-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 12 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.828040Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My44MjgwNDArMDA6MDB8ODgxNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.6,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":8,"latest_update_id":8816,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8815,"event_id":3783,"slug":"3783-lga-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 55% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.819138Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My44MTkxMzgrMDA6MDB8ODgxNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":13.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":105,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8815,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8814,"event_id":3729,"slug":"3729-lga-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"53% → 56% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.593938Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My41OTM5MzgrMDA6MDB8ODgxNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":6.4,"target":"LGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":106,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8814,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8813,"event_id":3803,"slug":"3803-lga-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 AM–noon Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"39% → 32%; calm-weather level 14%","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.432500Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My40MzI1MDArMDA6MDB8ODgxMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":9.4,"target":"LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":113,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8813,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8812,"event_id":3884,"slug":"3884-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among JFK departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 97 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.366343Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My4zNjYzNDMrMDA6MDB8ODgxMg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.5,"target":"JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8812,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8811,"event_id":3869,"slug":"3869-lax-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX departures back near normal: 27% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 12:16 AM and 1:16 AM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 49% at worst → 27% now","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:16:52.356984Z","time":"1:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"45 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:16:00Z","time":"1:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"46 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:16:50.779212Z","time":"1:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"45 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOToxNjo1Mi4zNTY5ODQrMDA6MDB8ODgxMQ","measurement":{"window":"12:16 AM–1:16 AM PST","n":15,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"27%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":8.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8811,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8810,"event_id":3868,"slug":"3868-sfo-taxi-in","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min","body":"Of 15 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 2.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.","what_changed":"slow share 35% at worst → 7% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:51.187392Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:40:00Z","time":"12:40 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:40 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MS4xODczOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgxMA","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","11:40 PM–12:40 AM PST"],["Sample","15 arrivals"],["Slow","7%"],["Usually","5%"]],"rows":[["Landings","11:40 PM–12:40 AM PST · 15 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","1 (7%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","5% usually · typical taxi-in 3.1 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","2.3 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8810,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8809,"event_id":3883,"slug":"3883-msy-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for New Orleans departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSY"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.664534Z","time":"2:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"2:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42NjQ1MzQrMDA6MDB8ODgwOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MSY departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8809,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8808,"event_id":3864,"slug":"3864-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.630473Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MzA0NzMrMDA6MDB8ODgwOA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.0,"target":"EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":71,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8808,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8807,"event_id":3808,"slug":"3808-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 98 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.623416Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MjM0MTYrMDA6MDB8ODgwNw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.8,"target":"EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":98,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8807,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8806,"event_id":3876,"slug":"3876-bos-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 77 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.615877Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MTU4NzcrMDA6MDB8ODgwNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.0,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8806,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8805,"event_id":3875,"slug":"3875-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.612192Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MTIxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgwNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"35%","expected_cancellations":4.0,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8805,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8804,"event_id":3874,"slug":"3874-bos-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.608479Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MDg0NzkrMDA6MDB8ODgwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"29%","expected_cancellations":5.7,"target":"BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8804,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8803,"event_id":3784,"slug":"3784-lga-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.595270Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC41OTUyNzArMDA6MDB8ODgwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.2,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":8,"latest_update_id":8816,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8816,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Friday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.828040Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"}}},{"id":8802,"event_id":3783,"slug":"3783-lga-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 55% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.571542Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC41NzE1NDIrMDA6MDB8ODgwMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":2.1,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":14.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":105,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8815,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8815,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.819138Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"}}},{"id":8801,"event_id":3882,"slug":"3882-lax-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX arrivals running late: 62% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:47 PM and 12:47 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:47:42.613307Z","time":"12:47 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:47 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:47 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:47:00Z","time":"12:47 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:47 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:47 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:47:42.476158Z","time":"12:47 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:47 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:47 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo0Nzo0Mi42MTMzMDcrMDA6MDB8ODgwMQ","measurement":{"window":"11:47 PM–12:47 AM PST","n":16,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"62%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":25.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8801,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8800,"event_id":3881,"slug":"3881-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:33:30.159642Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:33:00Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:33:30.008241Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODozMzozMC4xNTk2NDIrMDA6MDB8ODgwMA","measurement":{"window":"11:33 PM–12:33 AM PST","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8800,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8799,"event_id":3880,"slug":"3880-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.263192Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNjMxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODc5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"SJC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8799,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNjMxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODc5OQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4xMjM0NzYrMDA6MDB8ODgyMw","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n TPA\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 44% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 45% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 44% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n 40% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SLC\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 48% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n EWR\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n ▲ about 11 → 12 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LGA\n DEP\n CANCEL\n NEW\n \n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among LaGuardia departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n ~6 cancellations\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LGA\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n ▲ about 10 → 12 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LGA\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%

\n ▼ 55% → 55% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LGA\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 56%

\n ▲ 53% → 56% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n LGA\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 32%, near normal

\n 39% → 32%; calm-weather level 14%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n JFK\n DEP\n CANCEL\n NEW\n \n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among JFK departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n ~6 cancellations\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

LAX departures back near normal: 27% late in the last hour

\n late share 49% at worst → 27% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n SFO\n ARR\n TAXI-IN\n RESOLVED\n \n

SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min

\n slow share 35% at worst → 7% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n MSY\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for New Orleans departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 44% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n EWR\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n ▲ about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n EWR\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n ▲ about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n BOS\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n ▼ about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BOS\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%

\n ▼ 47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n BOS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal

\n 44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LGA\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n ▼ about 11 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LGA\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%

\n ▲ 55% → 55% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n LAX\n ARR\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

LAX arrivals running late: 62% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 62% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n LAS\n ARR\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Las Vegas arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 50% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SJC\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 43% risk\n
\n \n
"],"filters":"mode=all&view=terminal"}