{"items":[{"id":8808,"event_id":3864,"slug":"3864-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.630473Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MzA0NzMrMDA6MDB8ODgwOA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.0,"target":"EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":71,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8808,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8807,"event_id":3808,"slug":"3808-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 98 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.623416Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MjM0MTYrMDA6MDB8ODgwNw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.8,"target":"EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":98,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8807,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8806,"event_id":3876,"slug":"3876-bos-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 77 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.615877Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MTU4NzcrMDA6MDB8ODgwNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.0,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8806,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8803,"event_id":3784,"slug":"3784-lga-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.595270Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC41OTUyNzArMDA6MDB8ODgwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.2,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8803,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8793,"event_id":3786,"slug":"3786-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.200470Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yMDA0NzArMDA6MDB8ODc5Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.5,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8793,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8786,"event_id":3806,"slug":"3806-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 104 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.174258Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xNzQyNTgrMDA6MDB8ODc4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.8,"target":"JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8786,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8785,"event_id":3782,"slug":"3782-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.171210Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xNzEyMTArMDA6MDB8ODc4NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.1,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":8785,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8783,"event_id":3863,"slug":"3863-lga-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 9 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.160740Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xNjA3NDArMDA6MDB8ODc4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.0,"target":"LGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8783,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8782,"event_id":3805,"slug":"3805-lga-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 113 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 21 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.158422Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xNTg0MjIrMDA6MDB8ODc4Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.9,"target":"LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":113,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":8782,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8741,"event_id":3855,"slug":"3855-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 69 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:57:06.522143Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:57:05.834354Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo1NzowNi41MjIxNDMrMDA6MDB8ODc0MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.3,"target":"JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":69,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8741,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8673,"event_id":3809,"slug":"3809-phl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 80 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["PHL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.443477Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni40NDM0NzcrMDA6MDB8ODY3Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.8,"target":"PHL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":80,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8673,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8663,"event_id":3832,"slug":"3832-bos-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Boston departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 117 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.361950Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni4zNjE5NTArMDA6MDB8ODY2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.5,"target":"BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":117,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8663,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8662,"event_id":3778,"slug":"3778-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.346629Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni4zNDY2MjkrMDA6MDB8ODY2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.8,"target":"SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":19.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":94,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8662,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8562,"event_id":3787,"slug":"3787-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.715828Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43MTU4MjgrMDA6MDB8ODU2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.1,"target":"EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":18.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":89,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8562,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8559,"event_id":3757,"slug":"3757-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 46 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.704399Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43MDQzOTkrMDA6MDB8ODU1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.4,"target":"EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8559,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8554,"event_id":3780,"slug":"3780-bos-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Boston departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 112 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.645329Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy42NDUzMjkrMDA6MDB8ODU1NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.8,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":112,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8554,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8517,"event_id":3689,"slug":"3689-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 71 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 14 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:57:27.995833Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:57:25.046625Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzo1NzoyNy45OTU4MzMrMDA6MDB8ODUxNw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.8,"target":"JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":71,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8517,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8486,"event_id":3625,"slug":"3625-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:45.822616Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0NS44MjI2MTYrMDA6MDB8ODQ4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.6,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":98,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8486,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8485,"event_id":3717,"slug":"3717-lga-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 16 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:45.813290Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0NS44MTMyOTArMDA6MDB8ODQ4NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":15.8,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":100,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8485,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8464,"event_id":3728,"slug":"3728-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 10 cancellations among SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 118 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:58:20.205478Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:58:18.984943Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1ODoyMC4yMDU0NzgrMDA6MDB8ODQ2NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.3,"target":"SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":22.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8464,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8452,"event_id":3719,"slug":"3719-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 116 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.685380Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi42ODUzODArMDA6MDB8ODQ1Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.1,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":116,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8452,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8449,"event_id":3718,"slug":"3718-bos-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Boston departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.660627Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi42NjA2MjcrMDA6MDB8ODQ0OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.5,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8449,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8370,"event_id":3674,"slug":"3674-sfo-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 106 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:57:49.183929Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:57:47.134972Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1Nzo0OS4xODM5MjkrMDA6MDB8ODM3MA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.3,"target":"SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":22.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":106,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8370,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8315,"event_id":3597,"slug":"3597-lga-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 4 → 3","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:56:59.105471Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:56:58.053811Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNTo1Njo1OS4xMDU0NzErMDA6MDB8ODMxNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.0,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":106,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8315,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8300,"event_id":3601,"slug":"3601-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 114 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 4 → 3","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T14:27:02.945315Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 14:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T14:27:01.380700Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 14:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNDoyNzowMi45NDUzMTUrMDA6MDB8ODMwMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":114,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8300,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNDoyNzowMi45NDUzMTUrMDA6MDB8ODMwMA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MzA0NzMrMDA6MDB8ODgwOA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 56 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 56 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 98 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 56 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 77 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 56 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 104 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 9 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n

What changed: about 21 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 113 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 5 cancellations among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 69 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n PHL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 80 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View PHL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Boston departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 117 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 19.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 5 cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 18.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 46 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 9 cancellations among Boston departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 112 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 14 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 71 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 16 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 10 cancellations among SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 118 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 116 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Boston departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n SFO\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 106 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View SFO\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 4 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 4 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 114 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation"}