{"items":[{"id":29,"event_id":7,"slug":"7-ewr-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 63%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 63% since the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:26:03.161755Z","time":"7:26 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:26 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T22:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 6:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:26:03.032358Z","time":"7:26 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:26 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzoyNjowMy4xNjE3NTUrMDA6MDB8Mjk","forecast":{"p_pct":"63%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T22:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 6:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":29,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":28,"event_id":14,"slug":"14-ewr-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA now reports departure delays of 61–75 min at Newark","body":"The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 61–75 min at Newark (EWR), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":"range 46–60 → 61–75 min","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:26:03.079782Z","time":"7:26 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:26 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:24:44.535000Z","time":"7:24 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"14 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:24 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:24 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:26:03.032358Z","time":"7:26 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:26 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzoyNjowMy4wNzk3ODIrMDA6MDB8Mjg","lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":28,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":26,"event_id":9,"slug":"9-lga-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA now reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia","body":"The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":"range 61–75 → 76–90 min","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:13:59.654453Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:12:32.709000Z","time":"7:12 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"26 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:12 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:12 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:13:59.558889Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzoxMzo1OS42NTQ0NTMrMDA6MDB8MjY","lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":26,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":18,"event_id":5,"slug":"5-lga-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 73%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"62% → 73% since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T22:27:40.752465Z","time":"6:27 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 6:27 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 22:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T21:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 5:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T22:27:40.573772Z","time":"6:27 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 6:27 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 22:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMjoyNzo0MC43NTI0NjUrMDA6MDB8MTg","forecast":{"p_pct":"73%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"LGA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T21:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 5:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":18,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":15,"event_id":11,"slug":"11-ewr-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Newark","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:11 PM EDT, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:09 PM EDT.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T21:13:25.758819Z","time":"5:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 5:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 21:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T21:11:04.022000Z","time":"5:11 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 5:11 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 21:11 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T21:13:25.709047Z","time":"5:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 5:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 21:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMToxMzoyNS43NTg4MTkrMDA6MDB8MTU","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":15,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6,"event_id":6,"slug":"6-ewr-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.344833Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zNDQ4MzMrMDA6MDB8Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":1.7,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":111,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":4,"event_id":4,"slug":"4-lga-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 64% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.329595Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMjk1OTUrMDA6MDB8NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":98,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3,"event_id":3,"slug":"3-jfk-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.316725Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMTY3MjUrMDA6MDB8Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":71,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":3,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2,"event_id":2,"slug":"2-jfk-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.313854Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMTM4NTQrMDA6MDB8Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":109,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzoyNjowMy4xNjE3NTUrMDA6MDB8Mjk","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 13 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 63%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 63%

\n

What changed: 54% → 63% since the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 63%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 13 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA now reports departure delays of 61–75 min at Newark

\n

What changed: range 46–60 → 61–75 min

\n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 61–75 min at Newark (EWR), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 25 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA now reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia

\n

What changed: range 61–75 → 76–90 min

\n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 73%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 73%

\n

What changed: 62% → 73% since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 73%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Newark

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:11 PM EDT, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:09 PM EDT.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 64% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
"],"filters":"type=delay"}