{"items":[{"id":8823,"event_id":3890,"slug":"3890-tpa-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["TPA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.123476Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4xMjM0NzYrMDA6MDB8ODgyMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"TPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":52,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8823,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8822,"event_id":3889,"slug":"3889-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.097701Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wOTc3MDErMDA6MDB8ODgyMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":55,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8822,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8821,"event_id":3888,"slug":"3888-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.054051Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wNTQwNTErMDA6MDB8ODgyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":1.6,"target":"FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8821,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8820,"event_id":3887,"slug":"3887-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.007612Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wMDc2MTIrMDA6MDB8ODgyMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":73,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8820,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8819,"event_id":3886,"slug":"3886-slc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SLC"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.965066Z","time":"2:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"2:58 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:58 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My45NjUwNjYrMDA6MDB8ODgxOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"SLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"MST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM MST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8819,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8815,"event_id":3783,"slug":"3783-lga-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 55% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.819138Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My44MTkxMzgrMDA6MDB8ODgxNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":13.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":105,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8815,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8814,"event_id":3729,"slug":"3729-lga-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"53% → 56% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.593938Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My41OTM5MzgrMDA6MDB8ODgxNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":6.4,"target":"LGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":106,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8814,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8813,"event_id":3803,"slug":"3803-lga-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 AM–noon Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"39% → 32%; calm-weather level 14%","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:53.432500Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1My40MzI1MDArMDA6MDB8ODgxMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":9.4,"target":"LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":113,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8813,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8811,"event_id":3869,"slug":"3869-lax-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX departures back near normal: 27% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 12:16 AM and 1:16 AM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 49% at worst → 27% now","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:16:52.356984Z","time":"1:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:16:00Z","time":"1:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:16:50.779212Z","time":"1:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOToxNjo1Mi4zNTY5ODQrMDA6MDB8ODgxMQ","measurement":{"window":"12:16 AM–1:16 AM PST","n":15,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"27%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":8.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8811,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8809,"event_id":3883,"slug":"3883-msy-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for New Orleans departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSY"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.664534Z","time":"2:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"2:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42NjQ1MzQrMDA6MDB8ODgwOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MSY departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8809,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8805,"event_id":3875,"slug":"3875-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.612192Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MTIxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgwNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"35%","expected_cancellations":4.0,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8805,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8804,"event_id":3874,"slug":"3874-bos-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.608479Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MDg0NzkrMDA6MDB8ODgwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"29%","expected_cancellations":5.7,"target":"BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8804,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8801,"event_id":3882,"slug":"3882-lax-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX arrivals running late: 62% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:47 PM and 12:47 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:47:42.613307Z","time":"12:47 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:47 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:47 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:47:00Z","time":"12:47 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:47 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:47 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:47:42.476158Z","time":"12:47 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:47 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:47 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo0Nzo0Mi42MTMzMDcrMDA6MDB8ODgwMQ","measurement":{"window":"11:47 PM–12:47 AM PST","n":16,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"62%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":25.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8801,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8800,"event_id":3881,"slug":"3881-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:33:30.159642Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:33:00Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:33:30.008241Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODozMzozMC4xNTk2NDIrMDA6MDB8ODgwMA","measurement":{"window":"11:33 PM–12:33 AM PST","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8800,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8799,"event_id":3880,"slug":"3880-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.245486Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNDU0ODYrMDA6MDB8ODc5Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8797,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8796,"event_id":3877,"slug":"3877-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.230931Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yMzA5MzErMDA6MDB8ODc5Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"MDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8796,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8792,"event_id":3785,"slug":"3785-ewr-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"70% → 61% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.198058Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xOTgwNTgrMDA6MDB8ODc5Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":3.0,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":14.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":113,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8792,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8790,"event_id":3779,"slug":"3779-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 38%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.189233Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xODkyMzMrMDA6MDB8ODc5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":14.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8790,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8789,"event_id":3731,"slug":"3731-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 38%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.186875Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xODY4NzUrMDA6MDB8ODc4OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":96,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8789,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8784,"event_id":3834,"slug":"3834-jfk-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 37%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Friday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 37% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.167880Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xNjc4ODArMDA6MDB8ODc4NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":7.8,"target":"JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8784,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8777,"event_id":3873,"slug":"3873-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.136493Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xMzY0OTMrMDA6MDB8ODc3Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"LAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":17.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":62,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8777,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8776,"event_id":3872,"slug":"3872-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.133929Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xMzM5MjkrMDA6MDB8ODc3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"LAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":14.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":103,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8776,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8775,"event_id":3871,"slug":"3871-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.109326Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xMDkzMjYrMDA6MDB8ODc3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":2.1,"target":"LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":114,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8775,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xMDkzMjYrMDA6MDB8ODc3NQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4xMjM0NzYrMDA6MDB8ODgyMw","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n TPA\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 44% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 45% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 44% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n 40% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SLC\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 48% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LGA\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%

\n ▼ 55% → 55% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LGA\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 56%

\n ▲ 53% → 56% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n LGA\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 32%, near normal

\n 39% → 32%; calm-weather level 14%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

LAX departures back near normal: 27% late in the last hour

\n late share 49% at worst → 27% now\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n MSY\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for New Orleans departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 44% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BOS\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%

\n ▼ 47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n BOS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal

\n 44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n LAX\n ARR\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

LAX arrivals running late: 62% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 62% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n LAS\n ARR\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Las Vegas arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 50% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SJC\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 43% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SNA\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 46% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 43% risk\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n MDW\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 47% risk\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n EWR\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%

\n ▼ 70% → 61% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BOS\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 38%

\n ▼ 50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BOS\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 38%

\n ▼ 50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n JFK\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 37%

\n ▼ 49% → 37% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LAS\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n 57% risk\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LAS\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 57% risk\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LAS\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 50% risk\n
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"],"filters":"type=delay&view=terminal"}