{"items":[{"id":8811,"event_id":3869,"slug":"3869-lax-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX departures back near normal: 27% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 12:16 AM and 1:16 AM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 49% at worst → 27% now","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:16:52.356984Z","time":"1:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"35 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:16:00Z","time":"1:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:16:50.779212Z","time":"1:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"35 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOToxNjo1Mi4zNTY5ODQrMDA6MDB8ODgxMQ","measurement":{"window":"12:16 AM–1:16 AM PST","n":15,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"27%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":8.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8811,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8810,"event_id":3868,"slug":"3868-sfo-taxi-in","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min","body":"Of 15 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 2.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.","what_changed":"slow share 35% at worst → 7% now","airports":["SFO"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:51.187392Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:40:00Z","time":"12:40 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:40 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"12:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MS4xODczOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgxMA","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","11:40 PM–12:40 AM PST"],["Sample","15 arrivals"],["Slow","7%"],["Usually","5%"]],"rows":[["Landings","11:40 PM–12:40 AM PST · 15 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","1 (7%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","5% usually · typical taxi-in 3.1 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","2.3 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8810,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8809,"event_id":3883,"slug":"3883-msy-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for New Orleans departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MSY"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.664534Z","time":"2:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"2:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42NjQ1MzQrMDA6MDB8ODgwOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"MSY departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8809,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8808,"event_id":3864,"slug":"3864-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.630473Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MzA0NzMrMDA6MDB8ODgwOA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.0,"target":"EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":71,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8808,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8807,"event_id":3808,"slug":"3808-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 98 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.623416Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MjM0MTYrMDA6MDB8ODgwNw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.8,"target":"EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":98,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8807,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8806,"event_id":3876,"slug":"3876-bos-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 77 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.615877Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MTU4NzcrMDA6MDB8ODgwNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.0,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8806,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8805,"event_id":3875,"slug":"3875-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.612192Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MTIxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgwNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"35%","expected_cancellations":4.0,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8805,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8804,"event_id":3874,"slug":"3874-bos-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.608479Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MDg0NzkrMDA6MDB8ODgwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"29%","expected_cancellations":5.7,"target":"BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8804,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8803,"event_id":3784,"slug":"3784-lga-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.595270Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC41OTUyNzArMDA6MDB8ODgwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.2,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8803,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8802,"event_id":3783,"slug":"3783-lga-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 55% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.571542Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC41NzE1NDIrMDA6MDB8ODgwMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":2.1,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":14.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":105,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8802,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8801,"event_id":3882,"slug":"3882-lax-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX arrivals running late: 62% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:47 PM and 12:47 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:47:42.613307Z","time":"12:47 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:47 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:47 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:47:00Z","time":"12:47 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:47 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:47 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:47:42.476158Z","time":"12:47 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:47 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:47 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo0Nzo0Mi42MTMzMDcrMDA6MDB8ODgwMQ","measurement":{"window":"11:47 PM–12:47 AM PST","n":16,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"62%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":25.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8801,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8800,"event_id":3881,"slug":"3881-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:33:30.159642Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:33:00Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:33:30.008241Z","time":"12:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODozMzozMC4xNTk2NDIrMDA6MDB8ODgwMA","measurement":{"window":"11:33 PM–12:33 AM PST","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8800,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8799,"event_id":3880,"slug":"3880-sjc-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SJC"],"metros":["BAY"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.263192Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNjMxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODc5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"SJC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8799,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8798,"event_id":3879,"slug":"3879-sna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SNA"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.259614Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNTk2MTQrMDA6MDB8ODc5OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"SNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":42,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8798,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8797,"event_id":3878,"slug":"3878-smf-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["SMF"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.245486Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yNDU0ODYrMDA6MDB8ODc5Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8797,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8796,"event_id":3877,"slug":"3877-mdw-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["MDW"],"metros":["CHI"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.230931Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yMzA5MzErMDA6MDB8ODc5Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"MDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8796,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8793,"event_id":3786,"slug":"3786-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.200470Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4yMDA0NzArMDA6MDB8ODc5Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.5,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8793,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8792,"event_id":3785,"slug":"3785-ewr-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"70% → 61% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.198058Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xOTgwNTgrMDA6MDB8ODc5Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":3.0,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":14.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":113,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8792,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8790,"event_id":3779,"slug":"3779-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 38%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.189233Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xODkyMzMrMDA6MDB8ODc5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":14.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8790,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8789,"event_id":3731,"slug":"3731-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 38%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.186875Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xODY4NzUrMDA6MDB8ODc4OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":96,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8789,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8786,"event_id":3806,"slug":"3806-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 104 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.174258Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xNzQyNTgrMDA6MDB8ODc4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.8,"target":"JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8786,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8785,"event_id":3782,"slug":"3782-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.171210Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xNzEyMTArMDA6MDB8ODc4NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.1,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":8785,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8784,"event_id":3834,"slug":"3834-jfk-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 37%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Friday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 37% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.167880Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xNjc4ODArMDA6MDB8ODc4NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":7.8,"target":"JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8784,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8783,"event_id":3863,"slug":"3863-lga-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 9 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.160740Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xNjA3NDArMDA6MDB8ODc4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.0,"target":"LGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8783,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8782,"event_id":3805,"slug":"3805-lga-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 113 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 21 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.158422Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xNTg0MjIrMDA6MDB8ODc4Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.9,"target":"LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":113,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":8782,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xNTg0MjIrMDA6MDB8ODc4Mg","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOToxNjo1Mi4zNTY5ODQrMDA6MDB8ODgxMQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

LAX departures back near normal: 27% late in the last hour

\n late share 49% at worst → 27% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n SFO\n ARR\n TAXI-IN\n RESOLVED\n \n

SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min

\n slow share 35% at worst → 7% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n MSY\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for New Orleans departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 44% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n EWR\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n ▲ about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +7Show all 7 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n EWR\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n ▲ about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n BOS\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n ▼ about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BOS\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%

\n ▼ 47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n BOS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal

\n 44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +7Show all 7 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LGA\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n ▼ about 11 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LGA\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%

\n ▲ 55% → 55% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n LAX\n ARR\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

LAX arrivals running late: 62% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 62% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n LAS\n ARR\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Las Vegas arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 50% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SJC\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 43% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SNA\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 46% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n SMF\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 43% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n MDW\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 47% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +5Show all 5 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n EWR\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n ▼ about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n EWR\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%

\n ▼ 70% → 61% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BOS\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 38%

\n ▼ 50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BOS\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 38%

\n ▼ 50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +7Show all 7 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n JFK\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n ▼ about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +6Show all 6 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n JFK\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n ▼ about 11 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n JFK\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 37%

\n ▼ 49% → 37% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LGA\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model now expects about 9 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n ▼ about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +6Show all 6 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LGA\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n ▼ about 21 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
"],"filters":"view=terminal"}