Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4631 LANDED 12:21 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 4631 · TUL → LGA

took off 8:35 AM CT · landed 12:21 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ 8am departures from TUL are usually not late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4631 · TUL → LGA

Odds over time