Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4645 LANDED 11:27 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 4645 · DTW → HPN

took off 10:07 AM ET · landed 11:27 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ HPN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

HPN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4645 · DTW → HPN

Odds over time