Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4903 LANDED 10:15 AM CT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 4903 · LGA → MEM

took off 9:06 AM ET · landed 10:15 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4903 · LGA → MEM

Odds over time