Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4986 LANDED 8:19 PM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 4986 · JFK → MKE

took off 7:27 PM ET · landed 8:19 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4986 · JFK → MKE

Odds over time