Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5013 LANDED 5:29 PM ET, ~3 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5013 · ATL → HPN

took off 3:40 PM ET · landed 5:29 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HPN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5013 · ATL → HPN

Odds over time