Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5102 LANDED 8:23 PM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5102 · OMA → LGA

took off 4:57 PM CT · landed 8:23 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OMA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.47 in

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5102 · OMA → LGA

Odds over time