Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5121 LANDED 4:56 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5121 · DTW → SDF

took off 4:07 PM ET · landed 4:56 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 4pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ DTW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5121 · DTW → SDF

Odds over time