Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5159 LANDED 9:48 PM CT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5159 · ATL → XNA

took off 9:22 PM ET · landed 9:48 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↑ 9pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5159 · ATL → XNA

Odds over time