Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5161 LANDED 5:32 PM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5161 · ATL → MGM

took off 5:58 PM ET · landed 5:32 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MGM more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MGM (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5161 · ATL → MGM

Odds over time