Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5223 LANDED 12:03 PM ET, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5223 · BUF → JFK

took off 11:06 AM ET · landed 12:03 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are usually not late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5223 · BUF → JFK

Odds over time