Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5223 LANDED 10:04 AM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5223 · JFK → BUF

took off 9:13 AM ET · landed 10:04 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5223 · JFK → BUF

Odds over time