Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5236 LANDED 8:53 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5236 · ATL → AGS

took off 8:23 PM ET · landed 8:53 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at AGS more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AGS

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AGS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5236 · ATL → AGS

Odds over time