Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5254 LANDED 1:24 PM ET, ~20 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5254 · BGR → LGA

took off 12:08 PM ET · landed 1:24 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at BGR that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.22 in

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5254 · BGR → LGA

Odds over time