9E 5278 · SYR → DTW

departs 5:16 PM ET · arrives 6:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SYR that day

Weather at each end

SYR (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5278 · SYR → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?