Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5404 LANDED 11:05 AM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5404 · MKE → JFK

took off 8:17 AM CT · landed 11:05 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from MKE are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5404 · MKE → JFK

Odds over time