Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5496 LANDED 2:27 PM CT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5496 · LGA → HSV

took off 1:36 PM ET · landed 2:27 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Other factors

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HSV (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5496 · LGA → HSV

Odds over time