Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1156 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1156 · PHX → CMH

departs 4:03 PM MT · arrives 10:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

CMH (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1156 · PHX → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?