Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1186 LANDED 11:14 AM MT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1186 · JFK → PHX

took off 9:25 AM ET · landed 11:14 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1186 · JFK → PHX

Odds over time