Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1202 LANDED 9:43 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AA 1202 · DFW → MFE

took off 8:40 PM CT · landed 9:43 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MFE (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1202 · DFW → MFE

Odds over time