Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1356 LANDED 7:45 AM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1356 · LAS → JFK

took off 12:26 AM PT · landed 7:45 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1356 · LAS → JFK

Odds over time