Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1378 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1378 · TUS → PHX

departs 6:33 PM MT · arrives 7:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ TUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.35 in

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1378 · TUS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?