Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1405 LANDED 9:35 PM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1405 · AUS → JFK

took off 5:12 PM CT · landed 9:35 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1405 · AUS → JFK

Odds over time