Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1501 LANDED 5:33 PM CT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1501 · BZN → ORD

took off 2:10 PM MT · landed 5:33 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

Weather at each end

BZN (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1501 · BZN → ORD

Odds over time