Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1504 LANDED 11:22 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1504 · LAX → DFW

took off 6:51 PM PT · landed 11:22 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 6pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1504 · LAX → DFW

Odds over time