Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1686 LANDED 1:47 PM CT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1686 · SNA → DFW

took off 9:19 AM PT · landed 1:47 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1686 · SNA → DFW

Odds over time