Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1728 LANDED 4:17 PM ET, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 1728 · PHX → DTW

took off 10:02 AM MT · landed 4:17 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1728 · PHX → DTW

Odds over time