Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1789 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:17 PM CT, ETA 6:59 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 1789 · DFW → SAN

took off 6:17 PM CT · expected to land 6:59 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1789 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time