Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1812 LANDED 8:09 AM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1812 · RDU → LGA

took off 7:03 AM ET · landed 8:09 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1812 · RDU → LGA

Odds over time