Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1851 LANDED 12:02 PM PT, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1851 · ORD → SFO

took off 9:52 AM CT · landed 12:02 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1851 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time