Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1890 LANDED 4:42 PM ET, ~27 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 1890 · LAS → JFK

took off 9:01 AM PT · landed 4:42 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1890 · LAS → JFK

Odds over time