Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1906 LANDED 1:57 PM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AA 1906 · ORD → SMF

took off 11:54 AM CT · landed 1:57 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1906 · ORD → SMF

Odds over time