Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1951 LANDED 3:02 PM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1951 · PHX → SAN

took off 2:12 PM MT · landed 3:02 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

SAN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1951 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time