Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2020 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 2020 · LAS → ORD

departs 9:40 AM PT · arrives 3:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

ORD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2020 · LAS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?