Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2078 LANDED 1:29 PM PT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 2078 · DFW → SMF

took off 12:23 PM CT · landed 1:29 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2078 · DFW → SMF

Odds over time