Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2078 LANDED 8:00 PM CT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2078 · SMF → DFW

took off 2:50 PM PT · landed 8:00 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2078 · SMF → DFW

Odds over time