Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2081 LANDED 10:11 AM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2081 · DFW → SMF

took off 9:07 AM CT · landed 10:11 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2081 · DFW → SMF

Odds over time