Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2187 LANDED 4:21 PM CT, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AA 2187 · TUS → DFW

took off 12:29 PM MT · landed 4:21 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUS that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.35 in

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2187 · TUS → DFW

Odds over time