Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2201 IN THE AIR (OFF 7:33 PM MT, ETA 12:31 AM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 2201 · PHX → ORD

took off 7:33 PM MT · expected to land 12:31 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2201 · PHX → ORD

Odds over time