Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2414 LANDED 10:40 AM MT, ~23 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2414 · SFO → PHX

took off 9:08 AM PT · landed 10:40 AM MT (scheduled 8:15 AM PT → 10:22 AM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2414 · SFO → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?