Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2418 LANDED 6:46 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2418 · ORD → IND

took off 5:14 PM CT · landed 6:46 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2418 · ORD → IND

Odds over time